Independently covering the OVC since 2011. To learn about us, click the button below.

Figuring out things like byes and the conference champion are supposed to easy when you’re down to the final week. Of course, nothing in the OVC has been easy this year, so I shouldn’t be shocked that I’m having to do this, again. 4 teams are within 2 games of the lead with 2 (or 1) to play, and only one other team is within 2 games of 3rd, so there’s one less player in this round of figuring out bye scenarios. (Sorry TSU…told you you were in trouble weeks ago)

First things first, EKU is out of the running for 4th. Even if they win out, they would tie TTU at 11-7 if the Golden Eagles lost to UTM. But, TTU went 2-0 against EKU. So the Colonels are out.

Top Seed Scenario…

First, let’s look at the schedule for the top 3 teams:

Morehead at Murray
Morehead at UTM
EKU at Murray
EIU at AP
SEMO at AP

Thankfully, this is made easier by the fact that Morehead and Murray play each other. First, I want to appraise Peay’s chances. They’re not good. They should win out, ending the conference with a 13-5 record. So, to have a chance, the winner of the Morehead, Murray game must lose their final game. Let’s assume this happens. Does it matter who wins the conference? No.

First off, let’s assume a 3-way tie atop the conference. If Morehead beats Murray, Morehead will be the #1 seed thanks to a 3-1 record against the other two. Peay would get the other double-bye, and Murray would fall to the single-bye. If Murray beats Morehead, and the 3-way tie scenario develops, all three teams would be 2-2 against each other, meaning it would fall to each team’s record against the 4th seed. So it falls to the 4th seed, in this scenario, TTU.

VS Tennessee Tech
—————–
Morehead 2-0
Murray 2-0
AP 0-2

So, AP cannot be the overall #1 seed, despite just being one game out with 2 to go.

That leads us to Morehead / Murray. It goes without saying that the winner of Thursday night’s game is favored to get the top seed. But, let’s assume that the winner of that games loses their final game. First, back to the 3-way tie scenario’s from earlier. Morehead would win be the #1 seed if they beat Murray and the conference ended in a 3-way tie. What if Murray won? We took out TTU, but didn’t continue on to the 5th seed. There’s only two options, EKU and TSU. SEMO can actually challenge TSU for the 6th seed but not if AP wins out, which is required to create a 3-way tie.

VS Eastern Kentucky (to create the above scenario, Murray must lose to EKU, creating a 3-way tie)
——————-
Morehead 1-1
Murray 1-1

VS Tennessee State
——————
Morehead 1-1
Murray 2-0

So, short version (too late, no?) The winner of Murray-Morehead is the top seed in the OVC tournament.

So, what happens if it ends in 2-way tie. If Morehead wins, they’ll be 2-0 against Murray. Game, set, match. If Murray wins, and loses to EKU, they would be 1-1 against Morehead. Meaning it would fall to the 3rd place team. And then the 4th. And then the 5th…however long it took to fall to TSU…or SEMO (remember that scenario I mentioned earlier?) If SEMO wins out over AP and TSU, and TSU loses out, both will be 8-10, with a 1-1 record against each other. Starting at the top, SEMO would be the 6th seed, thanks to a 1-1 record against…Murray. That same 1-1 record against Murray would cause Murray to fall to the 2nd seed, as Morehead is 2-0 against SEMO.

So, in summation, there is only ONE scenario where the winner of Thursday night (and only if it’s Murray) can lose the top overall seed…and it requires ALL of the following.

Murray beats Morehead
EKU beats Murray
Morehead beats UTM
SEMO beats AP
SEMO beats TSU
EIU beats TSU

Odds…1.5%

For the rest of the final week scenarios…I leave it to the OVC:

If Murray State, Austin Peay and Tennessee Tech end up tied at 12-6 …
Murray State would have composite record of 3-1 and be the No. 2 seed
Tennessee Tech would have composite record of 2-2 and be the No. 3 seed
Austin Peay would have composite record of 1-3 and be the No. 4 seed.

If Morehead State, Austin Peay and Tennessee Tech end up tied at 12-6 …

Morehead State would have composite record of 3-1 and be the No. 2 seed
Tennessee Tech would have composite record of 2-2 and be the No. 3 seed
Austin Peay would have composite record of 1-3 and be the No. 4 seed

If Morehead State and Tennessee Tech end up tied at 12-6 …
Morehead State would win head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0) and be the higher seed

If Murray State and Tennessee Tech end up tied at 12-6 …
Murray State would win head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0) and be the higher seed

If Austin Peay and Tennessee Tech end up tied at 12-6 …
Tennessee Tech would win head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0) and be the higher seed.

If Austin Peay, Tennessee Tech and Eastern Kentucky end up tied at 11-7 …
Tennessee Tech would have composite record of 4-0 and be the No. 3 seed
Austin Peay would have composite record of 2-2 and be the No. 4 seed
Eastern Kentucky would have composite record of 0-4 and be the No. 5 seed

If Tennessee Tech and Eastern Kentucky end up tied at 11-7 …
Tennessee Tech would win the head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0) and be No. 4 seed

If Eastern Kentucky and Tennessee State end up tied at 9-9 or 10-8 (with EKU loss to MUR) …
The teams split the season series (1-1)
Tiebreaker would move to records vs. highest seed(s)
If MOR is No. 1 … Both teams were 1-1 against MOR
If MUR is No. 1 … Both teams would be 0-2 against MUR
If APSU is next … TSU wins tiebreaker being 1-1 against AP (EKU 0-2)

If Eastern Kentucky and Tennessee State end up tied at 10-8 … (assuming EKU win over MUR)
The teams split the season series (1-1)
Tiebreaker would move to records vs. highest seed(s)
If MOR is No. 1 … Both teams were 1-1 against MOR
If MUR is No. 1 … EKU wins tiebreaker being 1-1 against MUR (TSU 0-2)

If Tennessee State and Southeast Missouri end up tied at 8-8 …
The teams would have split the season series (1-1)
Tiebreaker would move to records vs. highest seed(s)
If MOR is No. 1 … TSU wins tiebreaker being 1-1 vs. MOR (SEMO 0-2)
If MUR is No. 1 … SEMO wins tiebreaker being 1-1 vs. MUR (TSU 0-2)

If Southeast Missouri and UT Martin end up tied at 6-12 or 7-11 … (assuming UTM win vs. MOR on Sat.)
The teams split the season series (1-1)
Tiebreaker would move to records vs. highest seed(s)
If MOR is No. 1 … UTM wins tiebreaker being 1-1 vs. MOR (SEMO 0-2)
IF MUR is No. 1 … SEMO wins tiebreaker being 1-1 vs. MUR (UTM 0-2)

If Southeast Missouri and UT Martin end up tied at 6-12 … (assuming UTM loss to MOR on Sat.)
The teams split the season series (1-1)
Tiebreaker would move to records vs. highest seed(s)
Both teams would be 0-2 vs. MOR and/or APSU, moving to …
MUR … SEMO wins tiebreaker being 1-1 vs. MUR (UTM 0-2)

If Southeast Missouri, UT Martin and Eastern Illinois end up tied at 6-12 …
SEMO and UTM would be 3-1 in composite tiebreaker and pull out & go to head-to-head (above)
EIU would be 0-4 in composite record and be eliminated

If UT Martin and Eastern Illinois are tied at 5-13 …
UT Martin wins head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0)


JUMP TO TOP
SHARE THIS POST
Apologies, for this post the comments are closed.
OVC Ball
Compiling all OVC non-conference games

2016 Football Standings

OVC Overall
Jacksonville State 7-0 10-2
UT Martin 6-2 7-5
Tennessee Tech 5-3 5-6
Tennessee State 4-3 7-4
Eastern Illinois 4-4 6-5
Murray State 4-4 4-7
SEMO 3-5 3-8
Eastern Kentucky 2-6 3-8
Austin Peay 0-8 0-11


2016-17 Basketball Standings

OVC Overall

EAST

Belmont 15-1 23-7
Morehead State 10-6 14-16
Jacksonville State 9-7 20-15
Tennessee State 8-8 17-13
Tennessee Tech 8-8 12-20
Eastern Kentucky 5-11 12-19

WEST

UT Martin 10-6 22-13
SEMO 9-7 15-18
Murray State 8-8 16-17
Austin Peay 7-9 11-19
Eastern Illinois 6-10 14-15
SIUE 1-15 6-24


TAKING TOO LONG?
CLICK/TAP HERE TO CLOSE LOADING SCREEN.
LOADING