[Update] So one of the big stories coming out of this APR rule was that under it, UConn would be ineligible for the 2013 Tournament. Well, we can’t have that happening can we. No seriously, we can’t. ESPN is reporting that UConn head coach Jim Calhoun hopes the NCAA will change the rules to change the reporting dates to the most recent 4-years, meaning instead of ending with the 2010-11 season, it would end with the 2011-12 season. The problem? While most schools “know” those numbers, they’re not made official until May…of 2013. That’s after the tournament, right?
[Original Post] Under a new rule passed Thursday, the NCAA has set a hard Academic Progress Rate (or APR) cap to qualify for the NCAA Tournament beginning in the 2012-13 season. Under the rule, teams must have a 4-year APR average of 900 (for the 4 years ending 2010-11) or a 2-year APR average of 930. Soon, this APR cap is expected to move to a stricter 4-year average of 930, with no 2-year reprieve.
The latest numbers available are for the year ending 2009-10, which would be the 3rd year in the 4-year average used for the 2013 tournament, or the 1st year in the 2-year average. Here are the schools 4-year average as of ’09-10.
- Austin Peay – 974
- Eastern Illinois – 954
- Eastern Kentucky – 969
- Jacksonville State – 865
- Morehead State – 928
- Murray State – 932
- SEMO – 908
- SIU Edwardsville – 952
- Tennessee State – 907
- Tennessee Tech – 940
- UT Martin – 923
While the exact APR numbers are available for the past 2 years, the reports from 2007-08, which are the 1st year that will be used to calculate 2013 eligibility, aren’t available at the NCAA website. So I can’t calculate exactly what school will need from their 2010-11 numbers to be eligible under the 4-year plan. But any school’s whose current 4-year average is above 950 should be safe regardless. For those schools under 950, what would it take to be eligible under the 2-year rule? Here’s the numbers from 09′ – 10 (and what they would need to be eligible)
- Jacksonville State – 974 (>886)
- Morehead State – 956 (>904)
- Murray State – 959 (>901)
- SEMO – 915 (>945)
- Tennessee State – 822 (Impossible under 2-year rule)
- Tennessee Tech – 1000 (>860)
- UT Martin – 857 (Impossible under 2-year rule)
Three teams in the OVC could be at risk of not even being eligible for the NCAA Tournament under the new rule. SEMO would need a 945 APR for the 2010-11 school year, which while possible, is higher than last year and their 4-year average. SEMO is just 8 points currently above the 4-year average, but with a good year this won’t be an issue. Tennessee State may be in worse trouble. Just 7 points above the 900 limit, their 4-year score MUST remain over 900 after posting a horrid 822 APR last season. Without seeing their 1st year score, it’s impossible to know what they need for that to happen. (I will keep digging.) UT Martin is probably safe, with a 4-year average at 923.