The newest APR numbers have been released, and the OVC is on the right side of the bubble. With the rise in numbers at Jacksonville State, all men’s basketball programs in the conference are free of any APR penalties.
These numbers are through the 2011-12 season.
|2011-12 APR||Current Four-Year Average||Current Two-Year Average|
A four-year average below 900 makes a team subject to a postseason ban, unless their most recent two-year average is above 930. Starting next year, a team’s four-year APR must be above 930 to avoid a potential postseason ban, or a 940 over the past two years.
A score of 925 is considered equivalent to a 50% graduation rate.
For the most part, the OVC is in good shape for the big jump in required APR starting next year. Tennessee State has a low four-year average, but are fighting off an 822 from the 2009-2010 school year. That will still be on the four-year average next year, but if the Tigers keep their two-year average above 940, (with a 942 or better for 2012-13) they’ll be safe from a postseason ban.
UPDATE: Tennessee State is a “limited resource” school according to the NCAA, meaning they only need a four-year average of 910 to avoid a postseason ban in 2014-15. That can be achieved with a 899 APR next year. Austin Peay and Morehead State are also classified as “limited resource”. More on that is below.
UT Martin is in a serious situation as well. An 857 from the 2009-2010 school year is partially responsible for making it impossible for the Skyhawks to meet their four year average. A 962 is needed to meet the two-year target.
Eastern Illinois may be in a bit more of a situation. EIU must have a 971 in 2012-13 to achieve a four-year average of 930. The two-year rule won’t be any more help…EIU will need a 976 from 2012-13 for a 940 over two years.
SEMO needs a 927 to meet the four-year average goal.
To understand how much transfers can really impact APR, Belmont hasn’t had a transfer during the last four years, and have posted four perfect 1,000’s.
It should also be noted that current Morehead State head coach Sean Woods‘ former school, Mississippi Valley State, will likely serve a postseason ban this year, and possibly a multi-year ban due to their low APR. The school is appealing. The last three years of the school’s four-year APR average comes from years Woods was at the helm of the program.
That being said, the fault may not lie with Woods. Four SWAC men’s basketball programs, mostly HBCU universities, could suffer bans, leading many to believe the system is treating those schools, which tend to have fewer resources, unfairly. Under the APR standards, “limited resource” schools, those in the bottom 15% of Division I in athletics spending, will only need a 910 four-year average for next year’s postseason.