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The OVC will come out with their official list next week, but why wait until then? Here’s the full list of potential tiebreaker scenarios for the final week of the regular season:

Guaranteed OVC Tournament spot: Murray State, Belmont, Morehead State, Eastern Kentucky, SIUE
Eliminated from possible contention: Tennessee State, UT Martin, Jacksonville State

Note: I think this is a comprehensive list. If there’s a scenario you think I’ve missed, or I have a tiebreaker wrong, please leave a note in the comments so I can double-check and change if needed. This list focuses on tiebreakers, so it ignores potential scenarios where a team is clearly a higher seed based upon final records.

 

Getting Into the Tournament Scenarios

IF SEMO BEATS AUSTIN PEAY…
SEMO would be guaranteed an OVC Tournament spot

AND SIUE, AUSTIN PEAY WIN ON FINAL SATURDAY
Eastern Illinois and Austin Peay would be tied for eighth with 6-10 record

AND SIUE BEATS BELMONT, TTU LOSES OUT
Eastern Illinois would be the eight-seed based on 1-1 head-to-head record, 1-1 record against No. 5 SIUE
Austin Peay would be the eliminated based on 1-1 head-to-head record, 0-2 record against No. 5 SIUE

AND SIUE LOSES TO BELMONT, OR TTU WINS ONE OF THEIR FINAL TWO, OR SEMO LOSES TO MURRAY
Austin Peay would be the eight-seed based on 1-1 head-to-head record, 1-0 record against No. 3/4/5 Tennessee Tech
Eastern Illinois would be eliminated based on 1-1 head-to-head record, 0-1 record against No. 3/4/5 Tennessee Tech

AND SIUE LOSES TO BELMONT, TTU LOSES OUT, AND SEMO BEATS MURRAY
Austin Peay would be the eight-seed based on 1-1 head-to-head record, 2-0 record against No. 5 Southeast Missouri
Eastern Illinois would be eliminated based on 1-1 head-to-head record, 1-1 record against No. 5 Southeast Missouri

 

IF AUSTIN PEAY BEATS SEMO… AND BELMONT BEATS SIUE 

PLUS AP, SEMO, EIU WIN ON FINAL SATURDAY
All four would be tied at 7-9 for sixth place

EIU would be the six-seed based on 4-2 head-to-head composite record
SIUE would be the seven-seed based on 3-3 head-to-head composite record, 1-1 record against No. 1/2 Murray State
Austin Peay would be the eight-seed based on 3-3 head-to-head composite record, 0-2 record against no. 1/2 Murray State
SEMO would be eliminated based on 2-4 head-to-head composite record

PLUS UTM, MURRAY, SIUE WIN ON FINAL SATURDAY
Austin Peay, SEMO, and EIU would be tied at 6-10 for seventh place
Austin Peay would be the seven-seed based on 3-1 head-to-head composite record
Eastern Illinois would be the eight-seed based on 2-2 head-to-head composite record
SEMO would be eliminated based on 1-3 head-to-head composite record

PLUS UTM, SEMO, SIUE WIN ON FINAL SATURDAY
Austin Peay, EIU would be tied at 6-10 for eighth place
Austin Peay would be the eight-seed based on 1-1 head-to-head record, 1-0 record against No. 3/4/5 Tennessee Tech
EIU would be eliminated based on 1-1 record, 0-1 record against No. 3/4/5 Tennessee Tech

PLUS MURRAY, AP, AND SIUE WIN ON FINAL SATURDAY
SEMO, EIU would be tied at 6-10 for eighth place
SEMO would be the eight-seed based on 1-1 head-to-head composite record, 1-0 record against No. 3/4/5 Tennessee Tech
EIU would be eliminated based on 1-1 head-to-head composite record, 0-1 record against No. 3/4/5 Tennessee Tech  

PLUS UTM, MURRAY, AND EIU WIN ON FINAL SATURDAY
Austin Peay, SEMO would be tied at 6-10 for eighth place
Austin Peay would earn eight-seed based on 2-0 head-to-head record
SEMO would be eliminated based on 0-2 head-to-head record

 

IF AUSTIN PEAY BEATS SEMO…AND SIUE BEATS BELMONT

PLUS AP, SEMO, EIU WIN ON FINAL SATURDAY
OR UTM, MURRAY, SIUE WIN ON FINAL SATURDAY
EIU, Austin Peay, and SEMO would be tied at 7-9 or 6-10 for seventh place
Austin Peay would be the seven-seed based on 3-1 head-to-head composite record
EIU would be the eight-seed based on 2-2 head-to-head composite record
SEMO would be eliminated based on 1-3 head-to-head composite record

PLUS AP, MURRAY, SIUE WIN ON FINAL SATURDAY, AND TTU LOSES OUT
EIU, SEMO would be tied at 6-10 for eighth place
Eastern Illinois would be the eight-seed based on 1-1 head-to-head record, 2-0 record against No. 5 SIUE
Southeast Missouri would be eliminated based on 1-1 head-to-head record, 1-1 record against No. 5 SIUE

PLUS AP, MURRAY, SIUE WIN ON FINAL SATURDAY, AND TTU WINS ONE OF FINAL TWO
EIU, SEMO would be tied at 6-10 for eighth place
Southeast Missouri would be the eight-seed based on 1-1 head-to-head record, 1-0 record against No. 3/4/5 Tennessee Tech
Eastern Illinois would be eliminated based on 1-1 head-to-head record, 0-1 record against No. 3/4/5 Tennessee Tech

PLUS UTM, SEMO, SIUE WIN ON FINAL SATURDAY, AND TTU LOSES OUT
EIU, Austin Peay would be tied at 6-10 for eighth place
Eastern Illinois would be the eight-seed based on 1-1 head-to-head record, 2-0 record against No. 5 SIUE
Austin Peay would be eliminated based on 1-1 head-to-head record, 0-2 record against No. 5 SIUE

PLUS UTM, SEMO, SIUE WIN ON FINAL SATURDAY, AND TTU WINS ONE OF FINAL TWO
EIU, Austin Peay would be tied at 6-10 for eighth place
Austin Peay would earn the eight-seed based on 1-1 head-to-head record, 1-0 record against No. 3/4/5 Tennessee Tech
Eastern Illinois would earn eliminated based on 1-1 head-to-head record, 0-1 record against No. 3/4/5 Tennessee Tech

 

Other Scenarios

IF BELMONT, MURRAY STATE FINISH WITH EQUAL 14-2, 13-3 RECORDS
Belmont would earn one-seed, automatic NIT bid based on 1-0 head-to-head record

IF MOREHEAD WINS OUT, MURRAY AND BELMONT LOSE OUT
All three would be tied at 12-4 for top seed
Belmont would earn one-seed, automatic NIT bid based on 3-0 composite head-to-head record
Murray State would earn two-seed based on West Division championship, 1-1 head-to-head record
Morehead State would earn three-seed based on 0-3 composite head-to-head record

IF MOREHEAD WINS OUT, BELMONT LOSES OUT, AND MURRAY WINS ONE OF FINAL TWO
Morehead, Belmont would be tied at 12-4 for East Division winner
Belmont would earn two-seed based on 2-0 head-to-head record
Morehead State would earn three-seed based on 0-2 head-to-head record

IF MOREHEAD, EKU ARE TIED AT 11-5, 10-6 FOR THIRD (ASSUMES TTU LOSES AT LEAST ONE OF FINAL TWO)
EKU would earn three-seed based on 1-1 head-to-head record, 1-1 record against No. 1/2 Belmont
Morehead would earn four-seed based on 1-1 head-to-head record, 0-2 record against No. 1/2 Belmont

IF TTU BEATS EKU, MOREHEAD LOSES OUT, EKU WINS ON FINAL SATURDAY
All four would be tied at 10-6 for third
Tennessee Tech would earn the three-seed based on 3-1 head-to-head composite record
Morehead State would earn the four-seed based on 2-2 head-to-head composite record
Eastern Kentucky would earn the five-seed based on 1-3 head-to-head composite record

IF TTU WINS OUT, MOREHEAD LOSES OUT, EKU LOSES ON FINAL SATURDAY
TTU, Morehead would be tied at 10-6 for third
Tennessee Tech would earn the three-seed based on 1-1 head-to-head record, 1-1 record against No. 1/2 Belmont
Morehead State would earn the four-seed based on 1-1 head-to-head record, 0-2 record against No. 1/2 Belmont

IF TTU BEATS EKU, LOSES TO MOREHEAD, EKU LOSES OUT, SIUE LOSES ONE OF FINAL TWO
TTU, EKU would be tied at 9-7 for fourth
Tennessee Tech would earn the four-seed based on a 2-0 head-to-head record
Eastern Kentucky would earn the five-seed based on a 0-2 head-to-head record

IF SIUE WINS OUT, EKU LOSES OUT, TTU BEATS EKU, LOSES TO MOREHEAD STATE
SIUE, EKU and TTU would be tied at 9-7 for fourth place
TTU would earn four-seed based on 3-0 composite head-to-head record
SIUE would earn five-seed based on 1-1 composite head-to-head record
EKU would earn six-seed based on 0-3 composite head-to-head record

IF SIUE, TTU WIN OUT, EKU LOSES OUT
SIUE, EKU would be tied at 9-7 for fifth place
SIUE would earn five-seed based on 1-0 head-to-head record
EKU would earn six-seed based on 0-1 head-to-head record

IF SEMO WINS OUT, TTU LOSES OUT, AND SIUE SPLITS FINAL TWO
All three would be tied at 8-8 for fifth place
Southeast Missouri would earn the five-seed with 2-1 head-to-head composite record
Tennessee Tech would earn the six-seed with 1-1 head-to-head composite record
SIUE would earn the seven-seed with 1-2 head-to-head composite record

IF SIUE, TTU FINISH TIE FOR 5TH WITH 8-8 RECORD (ASSUMES SEMO LOSS)
Tennessee Tech would earn five-seed based on 1-0 head-to-head record
SIUE would earn six-seed based on 0-1 head-to-head record

IF SEMO, SIUE TIE AT 8-8 FOR SIX SEED (ASSUMES TTU WINS ONE OF FINAL TWO)

AND TTU FINISHES WITH A LOWER SEED THAN EKU (MULTIPLE SCENARIOS ABOVE)
SIUE would earn the six-seed based on 1-1 head-to-head record, 1-0 record against No. 3/4 Eastern Kentucky
SEMO would earn the seven-seed based on 1-1 head-to-head record, 0-1 record against No. 3/4 Eastern Kentucky

AND TTU FINISHES WITH A HIGHER SEED THAN TTU (MULTIPLE SCENARIOS ABOVE)
SEMO would earn the six-seed based on a 1-1 head-to-head record, 1-0 record against No. 3/4 Tennessee Tech
SIUE would earn the seven-seed based on 1-1 head-to-head record, 0-1 record against No. 3/4 Tennessee Tech

IF SIUE, AUSTIN PEAY, EIU TIE AT 7-9 FOR SIXTH (ASSUMES SEMO LOSES OUT)
EIU would earn the six-seed based on 3-0 head-to-head composite record
SIUE would earn the seven-seed based on 2-2 head-to-head composite record
Austin Peay would earn the eight-seed based on 1-3 head-to-head composite record

IF SIUE, EIU TIE AT 7-9 FOR SIXTH (ASSUMES AP, SEMO TIE AT 6-10)
EIU would earn the six-seed based on 2-0 head-to-head record
SIUE would earn the seven-seed based on 0-2 head-to-head record

This list is about as complete as I can make it. If there’s a scenario you don’t see mentioned, leave it in the comments and I’ll add it to the list.


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SHARE THIS POST
  1. The Racer Hobo™:
    I hate to be "that guy" but in your note asking for corrections, you put "do I can double..." should be "so"? Haha Sorry
    • ovcball:
      Hey, if that's the worst mistake I made in this post, GREAT! lol
      • The Racer Hobo™:
        I trust your math, that's a lot to keep up with. Let's just "Play Ball"
  2. semosupporter:
    Damn.....after reading that I've got a headache!!!
  3. Kevin Kroeper:
    Hey, Murray will be waiting for someone on Semi Friday, just like I said in October!! Told you it was a mistake to underestimate them, Go Racers!!!
OVC Ball
Predicting the OVC race…in mid-December

2016-17 Basketball Standings

OVCOverall

EAST

Belmont8-014-4
Morehead State6-310-12
Tennessee Tech5-39-14
Jacksonville State5-413-11
Tennessee State4-413-8
Eastern Kentucky2-69-14

WEST

UT Martin5-315-8
Murray State5-311-11
SEMO5-310-13
Austin Peay3-57-15
Eastern Illinois1-79-12
SIUE0-85-17
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